Some Texas Instruments automotive parts have drawn sharply higher spot-market quotes in recent weeks, reviving a familiar question: could car chips face another shortage like the one in 2020–2022? The evidence so far points to pressure on selected parts, not a repeat of the industry-wide crisis. TI reports stronger automotive demand and somewhat longer lead times, while the effect of AI investment on mature-node capacity adds a new source of uncertainty.

The shortage the automotive industry remembers #

Car manufacturers know how costly a missing chip can be. During the pandemic, factory and logistics disruptions coincided with abrupt shifts in demand. Capacity could not move quickly between products, and shortages of comparatively small, inexpensive components delayed entire vehicle builds. Some manufacturers reduced output or paused lines as supply problems spread across multiple semiconductor categories from 2020 to 2022. That experience exposed how even a well-planned vehicle program depends on a long chain of wafer fabrication, assembly, testing and delivery.

Today's market deserves attention for the same reason, but its scope is different. A jump in the price of a few immediately available parts can disrupt an individual buyer's plan without showing that automotive chip supply as a whole has broken down.

TI spot quotes have moved faster than the broader market #

On October 29, EET China reported sharply higher offers and some premium-priced transactions involving selected TI automotive parts. The traders it interviewed described an uneven market: some saw completed deals, while others saw many inquiries but few purchases, and they did not agree on one list of scarce ordering codes. An urgent spot offer can differ substantially from an existing contract price or an authorized-channel quote. The reported swings therefore describe particular transactions and offers, not a uniform TI price increase.

TI's October 21 third-quarter call supplies a clearer demand signal. Automotive revenue rose by a mid-teens percentage year on year and about 10% quarter on quarter. Management said some automotive customers held lean inventories as their own demand recovered. Overall lead times had edged up, although pressure varied by product. TI's CEO explained that factories cannot instantly change their output mix to satisfy a sudden rise in orders for every individual device. TI also has inventory and expanding internal capacity that can meet part of that demand.

AI investment is reaching mature manufacturing capacity #

AI demand is no longer confined to leading-edge processors, high-bandwidth memory and advanced packaging. Data centers also use power-management chips, discrete components and other devices made with mature processes. TrendForce reported in June that foundries were assigning more mature-node capacity to AI-related products while some established 8-inch lines were reduced or repurposed. It estimated average utilization of the top ten foundries' 8-inch plants at 88% for 2026, rising to 90% in the second half.

The pressure can extend beyond wafers. In November, executives from Nexperia and STMicroelectronics warned that fabrication and packaging resources were moving toward higher-margin AI products, creating possible bottlenecks for mainstream automotive and industrial chips. If traditional car electronics and AI infrastructure compete for the same manufacturing or assembly resources, automotive buyers may feel tighter supply even as overall semiconductor investment grows.

That is an industry-level shift, not a demonstrated cause of any particular TI quote. TI manufactures many of its own wafers and is adding capacity, although it has also reported tighter supply at some outside assembly and test partners. The precise constraint still depends on the device, its manufacturing route and the order already in the queue.

The exact device matters in a vehicle build #

Automotive lighting alone contains distinct jobs: TPS92662AQPHPRQ1 manages a headlight LED matrix, TPS92630QPWPRQ1 drives three linear LED channels, and TLC6C5712QPWPRQ1 provides twelve constant-current sink channels. Elsewhere in the vehicle, TPS1H000AQDGNRQ1 is a smart high-side switch for load control. Their functions and ordering codes differ, so a quote or lead time for one says little about the others. Buyers need to check each complete code against the required package, quantity, lot and delivery terms.

Will car chips face another broad shortage? #

TI's CEO said in October that current conditions should not be equated with the pandemic-era shortage, which affected nearly every end market. Whether today's pressure grows into something larger remains open. The signals to watch are repeated lead-time extensions for many complete ordering codes, accepted orders being rescheduled, persistent allocation across suppliers and, ultimately, actual disruption to vehicle production.

For now, the sharper risk is local: one qualified part missing from a released design can delay a build even while neighboring devices remain available. AI may reshape the mature-node supply balance over time, and the automotive industry could be among the first to feel it. A few extreme spot offers alone cannot tell buyers how far that change has gone.

Key references #

Pricing, lead time and available lots can change. Confirm current stock, lot details, packaging and final price before ordering.