The first week of August 2026 leaves memory buyers with a clear but lopsided picture: spot markets are calm, while the contract and wafer layers are firming. Pulling together the latest TrendForce DRAMeXchange spot and contract surveys, the signal is not a broad rally but a steady upward drift concentrated in NAND and legacy DRAM nodes — exactly the conditions that reward early allocation rather than waiting for spot to soften.
DRAM spot: flat-to-mixed, not volatile #
The 7 August spot survey shows mainstream DDR4 and DDR5 holding within a tight band. eTT (down-bin, untested-grade) parts are pinned at their floor, and the branded grades moved only fractions of a percent.
| Item | Avg ($) | MoM |
|---|---|---|
| DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 | 51.60 | +0.19% |
| DDR5 16Gb eTT | 23.64 | 0.00% |
| DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 | 86.27 | −0.48% |
| DDR4 16Gb eTT | 11.40 | 0.00% |
| DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 | 42.45 | +0.50% |
| DDR4 8Gb eTT | 4.21 | 0.00% |
| DDR3 4Gb 512Mx8 1600/1866 | 13.98 | +0.20% |
The read for procurement is stability, not spikes. Spot is not where the pressure sits this cycle — buyers negotiating off spot will see little movement week to week.
NAND and wafer spot: wafer is the firm signal #
Raw NAND spot (27 July) ticked up modestly: SLC 2Gb rose 2.61% to a $4.20 average, MLC 64Gb added 1.07% and MLC 32Gb 1.02%, while SLC 1Gb slipped 0.65%. The more telling line is the wafer market:
| Wafer (TLC) | Avg ($) | MoM |
|---|---|---|
| 512Gb | 19.25 | +1.69% |
| 256Gb | 10.79 | +3.09% |
| 128Gb | 6.85 | +3.01% |
Smaller wafer dies led with roughly +3% month-over-month. Wafer pricing is the leading indicator for contract NAND, so a firming wafer layer argues that contract NAND will hold its ground through the quarter rather than roll over.
Contract prices: June baseline reset higher in July #
The June-30 contract baseline, refreshed with July-31 updates, shows the real tightening. NAND MLC contract prices climbed 8–13% at both the high and low ends: 128Gb averaged $28.82 (+8.4%), 64Gb $21.37 (+9.5–13.1%) and 32Gb $17.08 (+7.5–9.8%).
DRAM contract moves were narrower at the top but severe at the legacy floor. DDR4 4Gb 256Mx16 averaged $13.00 with its low end up 35.3% month-over-month — the single standout figure in the whole dataset and a clear sign that mature DRAM nodes are the tightest supply segment. Higher-density parts were steadier: DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM $115, DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM $227, DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM $119, DDR4 16Gb 2Gx8 $42 and DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 $21.
TrendForce also flagged a December expansion of tracked contract lines to add DDR5 8/16GB SO-DIMM, DDR5 8/16GB U-DIMM and DDR5 16Gb 2Gx8 — useful for buyers who plan DDR5 transitions into 2027.
Q3 contract reference points published 3–5 August #
Three contract resets landed in early August and now define the negotiation baseline for the quarter:
- Mobile DRAM (3 Aug): LPDDR5X 8/12/16GB and LPDDR4X 4/8GB.
- eMMC (4 Aug): eMMC 8/16/32/64GB (MLC/TLC) and UFS 128/256GB.
- PC-Client OEM SSD (5 Aug): 1TB TLC PCIe value-grade averaged $270.10,
512GB $170.20 and 256GB $104.60.
These are the figures OEM and EMS teams should benchmark quotes against for second-half 2026 builds.
Daily market read (7 August) #
The regional commentary on the same date frames the numbers:
- Shenzhen: demand sparse; supplier quotes slightly passive.
- Hong Kong: cautious, wait-and-see mood; some eMMC prices drifting lower.
- Taiwan: wafer suppliers remain confident, holding stock (惜售) with prices
edging up.
That split — soft end-demand but confident, stock-holding supply — is consistent with a market that is firming underneath rather than surging.
SSD retail terminal (31 July) #
Branded retail SSD prices were mixed. Most lines were flat to slightly down: Samsung 990 Pro 1TB at $238.88 (−0.12%), PNY CS2150 2TB at $395.00 (−1.00%), Silicon Power US75 1TB at $164.97 (−0.60%), Kimtigo TP5000 1TB at $135.00 (unchanged). The outlier was ADATA Ultimate SU650 960GB at $242.00, tagged +36.6% — a single-SKU move that should be treated as an exception, not a market trend, until corroborated.
What buyers should check #
| Risk signal | Buyer action |
|---|---|
| Wafer +3% MoM, suppliers holding stock | Expect NAND contract to stay firm; lock Q3 allocation early |
| DDR4 4Gb legacy node +35% MoM | Secure mature DDR4 now; do not assume restock will be cheap |
| New Q3 contract baselines (Aug 3–5) | Benchmark supplier quotes against the refreshed reference points |
| HK eMMC drifting lower vs Taiwan wafer firm | Confirm exact eMMC density/grade before reading "weak" as broad |
| Spot flat, contract rising | Negotiate off contract, not spot; verify date code and lot condition |
Practical takeaway #
This is a "firm underneath" market. Spot DRAM is quiet, but the contract and wafer layers — especially legacy DDR4 and NAND wafer — are moving against the buyer. The practical response is to confirm Q3 allocations against the new reference points, prioritize mature DDR4 nodes before they tighten further, and treat any quoted price as needing verification of the exact manufacturer part number, package, date code, quantity and lot condition.
For in-stock devices, representative published lines include the SK hynix DDR4-3200 8Gb H5AG38EXNDX026N and the Kioxia eMMC THGBMTG5D1LBAIL; confirm current price, date code and packing by RFQ rather than assuming catalogue pricing reflects the latest contract move.
*Sources: TrendForce DRAMeXchange published price surveys dated 2026-07-27 and 2026-08-07; June-30 contract baseline with 2026-07-31 updates; Q3 contract resets published 2026-08-03 (Mobile DRAM), 2026-08-04 (eMMC/UFS) and 2026-08-05 (PC-Client OEM SSD).*
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